MT

INDICATOR AUDIT · MEMORY CYCLE

Memory cycle score

A 0–100 research indicator of memory-fundamental heat and market confirmation. It is neither a probability of stock gains nor a forecast date for a market top.

MODEL · V1.2.0All inputs within freshness limitsConfidence: medium

Current output · 2026-11-06

50/100

The cycle remains hot but sits below the 80-point overheating threshold. Fundamentals are strong while equity confirmation has cooled materially.

Unrounded result49.6
How the current score is calculated
Four components are normalized to 0–100 and multiplied by fixed weights. The page, homepage and public API now consume the same program output.
0.25 × price + 0.30 × supply + 0.25 × AI + 0.20 × equity confirmation
Price momentum15.1/100
Weight 25%Contribution 3.8
Supply tightness81.3/100
Weight 30%Contribution 24.4
AI demand intensity85.6/100
Weight 25%Contribution 21.4
Equity confirmation0/100
Weight 20%Contribution 0
Weighted total3.8 + 24.4 + 21.4 + 0.0 = 49.6 → 50
Input freshness
Daily market data has a four-day weekend buffer; research forecasts use 120–180 days or event-driven updates. A stale input prevents the page from calling the score live.

TrendForce DRAM spot

Current

2026-11-06 · 1d / 4d

TrendForce DRAM spot

Current

2026-11-06 · 1d / 4d

TrendForce DRAM spot

Current

2026-11-06 · 1d / 4d

吴梓豪先生DRAM bit出货预测

Current

2026-06-30 · 130d / 180d

MemoryTicker demand model

Current

2026-08-08 · 91d / 120d

MemoryTicker AI rack model

Current

2026-08-08 · 91d / 120d

Yahoo Finance adjusted closes

Current

2026-11-06 · 1d / 4d

Calculation trace

Raw values, normalization, data type and source are shown together. clamp bounds a result to 0–100 so an outlier cannot grow without limit.

InputRaw valueNormalizationScoreEvidence
DDR5 monthly change3.03 %clamp(3.03 / 8.00 × 100)37.8Observed
DDR4 8Gb monthly change-1.62 %clamp(-1.62 / 15.00 × 100)0Observed
Weekly DRAM breadth0 %0.0% of tracked DRAM series positive0Observed
2027 supply-gap ratio4.83 %(47.41 - 45.12) / 47.41 × 100; 6% = 10080.5Forecast
Demand growth over supply growth5.75 pptdemand growth 18.97% - supply growth 13.22%; 7ppt = 10082.1Forecast
AI-implied data-center growth34.08 %5.839 / (39.85 × 0.43) × 100; 40% = 10085.2Model estimate
Data-center DRAM share43 %43.0 / 50 × 10086Model estimate
Average 30-day memory-equity return-33.53 % / 30dclamp((-33.53 + 25) / 25 × 100); -25% = 0, 0% = 1000Observed
Is it scientific? The precise answer: reproducible, but not fully validated
No cross-cycle validation yet

What is rigorous today

A standalone calculation function produces the same result from the same inputs
Weights, thresholds, rounding and the full trace are disclosed
A missing configured input fails the calculation instead of silently reweighting
Automated tests verify the score, total weights and 0–100 bounds

What is still missing

No out-of-sample test across several complete DRAM cycles
Full-score thresholds such as 8% and 15% are expert-set, not statistically estimated
Contract prices, channel inventory and consensus EPS revisions lack connected continuous series
The current score cannot be read as an equal probability of gains or a certain equity top

How to use the score

It answers how hot the cycle is and whether the market still confirms it—not how much a stock can rise. 60–79 is hot and 80+ is overheated. A more credible top signal requires a persistent score decline alongside weaker contract prices, inventory and EPS revisions.

View machine-readable resultFull methodology