Wu Zihao's 45.12 EB forecast is total global DRAM shipments in 2027, not the annual increment.
How supply adds up
The 2027 forecast comprises Samsung 14.90 EB, SK hynix 14.25 EB, Micron 9.40 EB, CXMT 3.90 EB, Fujian Jinhua/SwaySure 0.75 EB and other suppliers 1.92 EB, totaling 45.12 EB.
Against 39.85 EB in 2026, global bit shipments rise 13.2%.
Bits are not wafers
Node transitions increase bits per wafer, while HBM consumes more wafer-equivalent area and advanced packaging. Yield, mix and qualification affect saleable output.
The 45.12 EB figure is therefore a base case, not a hard capacity ceiling.
Variables to monitor
Capital spending, wafer starts, advanced-node yield, HBM packaging bottlenecks and vendor bit-shipment guidance drive revisions.
Every revision should preserve the prior version and inputs rather than overwrite history.
For industry research only. This is not investment advice. Forecasts depend on assumptions and may differ materially from actual results.
Methodology