TrendForce Sees 4Q DRAM Contract Prices Up 10–15% as Enterprise SSD Gains May Accelerate

TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026 and NAND Flash contract prices to rise 15% to 20%. It also says enterprise SSD will be the category where price gains accelerate [1]. This is a market-research forecast for a quarter of contract negotiations, not completed transactions, and it does not imply that every memory and storage product will reprice by the same amount. MoneyDJ's report confirms the published ranges and the enterprise-SSD view, but does not independently verify transaction prices [2].

The important feature is not simply another forecast of higher prices. TrendForce describes customers moving in different directions. It says PC brands are still buying because they expect DRAM supply to stay tight in 2027, even as higher component costs weigh on notebook sales. After lower-cost inventory is depleted, rising mobile-DRAM costs and expected production cuts are expected to reduce smartphone bit demand [1]. By contrast, the firm expects cloud-service-provider AI-inference infrastructure to lift 2026 enterprise-SSD bit demand by more than 80%. It says additional QLC and high-capacity supply is largely pre-committed [1]. Those are TrendForce industry estimates; vendors have not disclosed order and shipment data that would independently test each element.

The 10–15% and 15–20% ranges are therefore better read as a segmented contract-price scenario than as a uniform supply-chain conclusion. A week earlier, TrendForce said CSP purchasing and suppliers' preference for HBM and server DRAM would leave fourth-quarter DRAM tight while consumer-device demand weakened [3]. The September 30 update extends that split to NAND and enterprise SSD. John Wood's analysis is that, if server and cloud buyers lock incremental high-capacity supply first, tightness may show up initially in the negotiable product mix and lead times rather than in every end-device capacity configuration. There is clear counter-evidence to watch: price bands in long-term agreements, further weakening PC and handset demand, or faster-than-expected QLC expansion could cap realized gains [1][4]. The next tests are vendor quarterly guidance, enterprise-SSD orders and shipments, PC and handset inventories, and whether contract and spot prices continue to diverge. Until then, the percentages are attributed forward estimates, not spot quotations or investment conclusions.